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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 58

New Orleans Saints 21 – San Francisco 49ers 26

What Actually Happened

(1:03) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler sacked at NO 34 for -8 yards (47-B.Huff). FUMBLES (47-B.Huff) [47-B.Huff], touched at NO 33, recovered by NO-51-C.Ruiz at NO 27.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.14 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 58, worth -1.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model