Fourth-Down Analyzer
Every 4th-down decision from every game this week, priced in expected points by the same submodels shown on each game's own page, just gathered here one week at a time instead of one game at a time. The objective: see which calls matched what the numbers say and which ones cost the most, across the whole week at a glance.
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Q1 ARI 4th & 4 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EPp(convert) 51%
(7:58) 39-M.Haack punts 45 yards to CIN 14, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-K.Williams pushed ob at CIN 21 for 7 yards (45-J.Deguara; 44-O.Pappoe).
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Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%
(:08) 9-J.Burrow up the middle to ARI 1 for 1 yard (93-C.Campbell; 90-Z.Carter).
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Q2 CIN 4th & 15 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(10:24) 8-R.Rehkow punts 42 yards to ARI 28, Center-46-W.Wagner. 80-S.Sims to ARI 33 for 5 yards (43-J.Giles-Harris; 42-O.Burks).
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Q2 ARI 4th & 8 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(9:17) 39-M.Haack punts 63 yards to CIN 2, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 38Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 60%
(3:25) 2-E.McPherson 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 8 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(2:33) 39-M.Haack punts 50 yards to CIN 21, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-K.Williams to ARI 36 for 43 yards (84-E.Higgins).
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Q2 ARI 4th & 20 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(:25) 39-M.Haack punts 53 yards to CIN 17, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-K.Williams to CIN 34 for 17 yards (44-O.Pappoe; 31-E.Demercado). PENALTY on CIN-38-D.Ivey, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at CIN 17.
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Q3 ARI 4th & 13 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(14:09) 39-M.Haack punts 61 yards to CIN 10, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-K.Williams to CIN 16 for 6 yards (31-E.Demercado).
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Q3 ARI 4th & 9 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(6:34) 39-M.Haack punts 54 yards to CIN 28, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-K.Williams to CIN 41 for 13 yards (27-A.Davis-Gaither; 30-D.Hall). PENALTY on CIN-33-D.Anthony, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 28.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 55Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(14:29) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 89-X.Weaver to CIN 32 for 23 yards (22-G.Stone).
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Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 18Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 93%
(12:14) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to CIN 14 for 4 yards (49-B.Carter; 23-D.Hill).
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Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 45Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 42%
(6:28) 8-R.Rehkow punts 37 yards to ARI 8, impetus ends at ARI 2, Center-46-W.Wagner, downed by CIN-26-T.Anderson.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 3 at the 40 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53% p(FG) 55%
(2:54) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-M.Wilson to CIN 25 for 15 yards (38-D.Ivey).
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Q4 ARI 4th & 3 at the 18 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 93%
(1:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle to 85-T.McBride for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 66Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73%
(11:25) (Shotgun) 70-D.Kinnard reported in as eligible. 8-J.Jacobs right guard to GB 34 for no gain (0-R.Smith; 95-T.Robinson).
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Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 4Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%
(7:13) 33-T.Loop 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 9 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%
(3:39) 33-T.Loop 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
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Q3 GB 4th & 6 at the 6Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%
(9:13) 17-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 11 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(5:08) 11-J.Stout punts 42 yards to GB 14, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 87-R.Doubs.
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Q4 GB 4th & 8 at the 50 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.31 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 28%
(:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-C.Tune pass incomplete short left to 0-M.Golden.
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Q1 CHI 4th & 3 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EPp(convert) 57%
(10:07) 19-T.Taylor punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback.
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Q1 SF 4th & 6 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(7:52) 7-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to CHI 16, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.
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Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(6:24) 19-T.Taylor punts 55 yards to SF 23, Center-46-S.Daly. 9-S.Moore to SF 34 for 11 yards (39-J.Blackwell; 21-T.Homer).
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Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 38Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 63%
(8:07) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 1-R.Pearsall to CHI 24 for 14 yards (26-N.Wright).
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Q2 CHI 4th & 7 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(1:15) 19-T.Taylor punts 57 yards to SF 9, Center-46-S.Daly. 9-S.Moore to SF 9 for no gain (33-J.Jones).
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Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 31Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 78%
(:16) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland to SF 22 for 9 yards (28-D.Luter).
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Q4 SF 4th & 7 at the 43Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 50%
(11:30) 7-T.Morstead punts 32 yards to CHI 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 11 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%
(5:26) 8-C.Santos 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 26 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.34 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 86%
(:33) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 84-C.Loveland to SF 13 for 13 yards (53-D.Winters).
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Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 56Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74%
(13:08) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams right guard to DAL 48 for 4 yards (99-J.Kinlaw).
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Q1 WAS 4th & 11 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%
(4:47) 16-J.Moody 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
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Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 50Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74% p(FG) 31%
(1:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 3-G.Pickens to WAS 31 for 19 yards (6-N.Igbinoghene).
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Q2 DAL 4th & 2 at the 23Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60% p(FG) 89%
(14:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 1-J.Tolbert to WAS 19 for 4 yards (0-M.Sainristil).
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Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 10Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 97%
(12:49) 33-J.Williams up the middle to WAS 9 for 1 yard (6-N.Igbinoghene).
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Q2 WAS 4th & 7 at the 43Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 49%
(9:20) 10-T.Way punts 40 yards to DAL 3, impetus ends at DAL 1, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-35-P.Butler.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 7 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 89%
(:22) 17-B.Aubrey 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 8 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(12:55) 10-T.Way punts 53 yards to DAL 7, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.
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Q3 DAL 4th & 18 at the 91Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(9:53) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to WAS 38, Center-44-T.Sieg. 88-R.Cracraft to WAS 40 for 2 yards (29-C.Goodwin). PENALTY on WAS-18-T.Owens, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 38.
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Q3 DAL 4th & 8 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 71%
(4:47) 17-B.Aubrey 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%
(:19) 16-J.Moody 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 7 at the 40Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 57%
(13:36) 17-B.Aubrey 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 8 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 31%
(11:38) 10-T.Way punts 35 yards to DAL 15, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 2 at the 55Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64%
(6:31) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 1-J.Tolbert pushed ob at WAS 48 for 7 yards (0-M.Sainristil).
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Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 33 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 74%
(4:02) 17-B.Aubrey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 34 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.36 EPp(convert) 72% p(FG) 71%
(:10) 4-D.Prescott up the middle to WAS 31 for 3 yards (96-J.Holmes; 54-B.Wagner).
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Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 9Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 97%
(7:02) 3-W.Lutz 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
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Q1 KC 4th & 9 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(4:00) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to DEN 11, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Mims to DEN 19 for 8 yards (48-C.Christiansen; 34-M.Edwards).
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Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 11Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 97%
(14:19) (Shotgun) 60-H.Nourzad reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt left guard to DEN 6 for 5 yards (9-T.Hufanga).
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Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 28%
(10:41) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 45 yards to KC 7, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 24-B.Smith to KC 18 for 11 yards (35-R.Taylor).
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Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 62Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EPp(convert) 54%
(8:33) 14-M.Araiza punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback. PENALTY on DEN-31-K.Abrams-Draine, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 20.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 10 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%
(:22) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 10Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 97%
(2:53) 73-F.Crum reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix left guard to KC 9 for 1 yard (23-D.Tranquill).
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Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(15:00) 14-M.Araiza punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 11 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(11:14) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 58 yards to KC 11, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 24-B.Smith to DEN 45 for 44 yards (92-D.Tillman).
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Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 82%
(8:08) 7-H.Butker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
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Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 26 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.83 EPp(convert) 34% p(FG) 86%
(:20) (Shotgun) 19-C.Oladokun pass incomplete deep middle to 5-M.Brown.
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Q1 MIN 4th & 16 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(13:32) 17-R.Wright punts 48 yards to DET 33, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 37 for 4 yards (40-S.Takitaki; 32-T.Chandler).
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Q1 DET 4th & 8 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 37%
(10:42) 3-J.Fox punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-49-H.Hatten, Touchback.
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Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%
(3:16) 5-D.Montgomery right tackle to MIN 2 for 1 yard (55-E.Wilson). Minnesota challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
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Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 4Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%
(1:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 18-I.TeSlaa for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: DET-58-P.Sewell has returned to the game.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(:26) 17-R.Wright punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.
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Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 30%
(11:11) 3-J.Fox punts 39 yards to MIN 14, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 1-J.Nailor.
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Q3 MIN 4th & 3 at the 79Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 56%
(9:44) 17-R.Wright punts 46 yards to DET 33, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 36 for 3 yards (36-Z.Scott).
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Q3 MIN 4th & 13 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 75%
(3:07) 16-W.Reichard 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
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Q3 MIN 4th & 6 at the 38Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 67%
(2:02) 16-W.Reichard 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
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Q4 MIN 4th & 20 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 37%
(13:03) 17-R.Wright punts 41 yards to DET 9, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 16 for 7 yards (0-I.Pace).
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Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(9:01) 3-J.Fox punts 70 yards to MIN 1, Center-49-H.Hatten, out of bounds.
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Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 94Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(7:24) 17-R.Wright punts 63 yards to DET 31, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 45 for 14 yards (30-C.Ham; 36-Z.Scott).
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Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 30 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 82%
(4:44) 39-J.Bates 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
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Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 24 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 89%
(1:08) 16-W.Reichard 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
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Q1 LAC 4th & 14 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(11:28) 16-J.Scott punts 41 yards to HOU 28, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-89-W.Dissly.
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Q1 LAC 4th & 12 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(5:09) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to HOU 17, Center-47-J.Harris. 14-J.Noel ran ob at HOU 21 for 4 yards (53-D.Phillips; 40-K.Williamson).
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Q1 HOU 4th & 9 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(2:15) 6-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to LAC 11, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 15-L.McConkey to LAC 18 for 7 yards (45-E.Speed).
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Q1 LAC 4th & 4 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(:43) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to HOU 27, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 14-J.Noel. PENALTY on HOU-11-T.Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 27.
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Q2 HOU 4th & 13 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 32%
(11:12) 6-T.Townsend punts 44 yards to LAC 8, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 85Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EPp(convert) 57%
(9:48) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to HOU 46, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 14-J.Noel. PENALTY on HOU-31-D.Clark, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 46.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 4 at the 9Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%
(6:13) 11-C.Dicker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
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Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(3:25) 6-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to LAC 13, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 13 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%
(:14) 11-C.Dicker 32 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 4 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(13:32) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to HOU 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.
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Q3 HOU 4th & 4 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(11:59) 6-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to LAC 24, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 15-L.McConkey to LAC 30 for 6 yards (31-D.Clark).
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Q3 LAC 4th & 15 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(9:45) 16-J.Scott punts 22 yards to LAC 47, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.
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Q3 HOU 4th & 13 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 90%
(6:07) 15-K.Fairbairn 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 7 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(13:24) 6-T.Townsend punts 52 yards to LAC 2, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-42-J.Ingram.
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Q4 LAC 4th & 8 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(10:42) 16-J.Scott punts 34 yards to HOU 45, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 87%
(6:33) 15-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
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Q1 IND 4th & 6 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%
(11:18) 10-B.Grupe 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
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Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(3:58) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to JAX 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-P.Washington pushed ob at JAX 17 for 5 yards (81-M.Alie-Cox). PENALTY on IND-20-N.Cross, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 17.
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Q2 IND 4th & 7 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(1:03) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to JAX 37, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-P.Washington to JAX 40 for 3 yards (16-A.Dulin).
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Q3 JAX 4th & 12 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(13:18) 9-L.Cooke punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.
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Q3 IND 4th & 14 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(10:14) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to JAX 19, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.
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Q3 JAX 4th & 3 at the 16Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 95%
(1:29) 39-C.Little 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
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Q4 IND 4th & 13 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(14:12) 8-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to JAX 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-P.Washington to JAX 30 for 2 yards (35-J.Edwards).
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Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 24Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 89%
(9:30) 64-W.Milum reported in as eligible. 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to IND 24 for no gain (95-A.Adebawore). (Virtual Measurement).
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Q4 JAX 4th & 13 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 89%
(7:03) 39-C.Little 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
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Q4 IND 4th & 11 at the 51 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 35%
(3:11) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short left to 14-A.Pierce (6-G.Newsome).
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Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 39 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 64%
(2:00) 16-T.Lawrence left guard to IND 36 for 3 yards (23-K.Moore).
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Q4 JAX 4th & 9 at the 35 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 73%
(:24) 39-C.Little 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
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Q1 ATL 4th & 7 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(13:35) 13-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to LA 11, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-X.Smith to LA 42 for 31 yards (36-R.Harrison). PENALTY on LA-25-R.McCreary, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at LA 11.
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Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 85Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.74 EPp(convert) 78%
(11:53) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to ATL 35, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.
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Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 11Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 97%
(1:04) 23-K.Williams up the middle to ATL 13 for -2 yards (92-K.Kareem).
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Q2 ATL 4th & 9 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 32%
(10:01) 13-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to LA 12, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
-
Q2 LA 4th & 11 at the 41Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 60%
(4:22) 42-E.Evans punts 40 yards to ATL 1, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-88-J.Whittington.
-
Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 96Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(2:00) 13-B.Pinion punts 61 yards to LA 35, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-X.Smith to LA 47 for 12 yards (28-M.Ford).
-
Q3 LA 4th & 6 at the 51Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 35%
(13:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 19-X.Smith pushed ob at ATL 15 for 36 yards (3-J.Bates; 24-A.Terrell).
-
Q3 LA 4th & 12 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%
(11:12) 92-H.Mevis 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.
-
Q3 ATL 4th & 10 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 69%
(7:51) 45-Z.Gonzalez 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
-
Q3 ATL 4th & 4 at the 19Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 93%
(:43) 45-Z.Gonzalez 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (8-J.Verse), Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion, RECOVERED by LA-8-J.Verse at LA 24. 8-J.Verse for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 49%
(13:49) 13-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to LA 9, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-X.Smith to LA 20 for 11 yards (85-T.Quitoriano).
-
Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 27Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 86%
(9:13) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 18-T.Ferguson INTERCEPTED by 31-X.Watts at ATL 25. 31-X.Watts ran ob at LA 43 for 32 yards (9-M.Stafford). PENALTY on ATL, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at LA 43.
-
Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 49Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.63 EPp(convert) 70% p(FG) 39%
(7:34) 13-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to LA 11, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
-
Q4 ATL 4th & 8 at the 33 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 77%
(:25) 45-Z.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
-
Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 65 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.64 EPp(convert) 40%
(:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 12-P.Nacua (24-A.Terrell).
-
Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 63Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EPp(convert) 58%
(9:20) 14-A.McNamara punts 48 yards to NE 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
-
Q2 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 92%
(9:59) 6-N.Folk 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
-
Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 20Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53% p(FG) 92%
(5:41) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles left end ran ob at NYJ 9 for 11 yards (44-J.Sherwood).
-
Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 99%
(3:03) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(1:55) 14-A.McNamara punts 50 yards to NE 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
-
Q3 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 57Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57%
(14:09) (Punt formation) 14-A.McNamara pass short middle to 27-M.Moore to NYJ 46 for 3 yards (41-B.Schooler).
-
Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 50Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 33%
(11:50) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 32-I.Davis. 32-I.Davis left end to NYJ 47 for -3 yards (94-C.Durden, 44-K.Chaisson).
-
Q3 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 44Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 28% p(FG) 49%
(5:40) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass short middle to 18-I.Williams to NE 34 for 10 yards (25-M.Jones).
-
Q3 NE 4th & 2 at the 23Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EPp(convert) 60% p(FG) 90%
(1:52) 36-A.Borregales 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
-
Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(12:57) 17-B.Baringer punts 48 yards to NYJ 22, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.
-
Q4 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 8 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 29% p(FG) 98%
(4:03) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass incomplete short left to 89-J.Ruckert.
-
Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 87 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(2:33) 17-B.Baringer punts 45 yards to NYJ 42, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.
-
Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 52 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 29%
(1:56) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass short right to 84-S.Smartt to NE 40 for 12 yards (24-D.Pettus).
-
Q4 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 20 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.06 EPp(convert) 30% p(FG) 92%
(:58) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass short right to 16-T.Johnson to NE 17 for 3 yards (41-B.Schooler; 48-J.Tavai).
-
Q1 TEN 4th & 5 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 28%
(12:19) 3-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.
-
Q1 NO 4th & 12 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(10:50) 32-K.Kroeger punts 17 yards to NO 35, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.
-
Q1 TEN 4th & 7 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 72%
(9:15) 6-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
-
Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 85%
(7:41) 39-C.Smyth 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
-
Q1 TEN 4th & 9 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 91%
(4:35) 6-J.Slye 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
-
Q1 NO 4th & 4 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(2:15) 32-K.Kroeger punts 38 yards to TEN 36, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-7-T.Hill.
-
Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 43%
(13:08) (No Huddle) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 85-C.Okonkwo for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 38Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 57%
(5:58) 39-C.Smyth 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
-
Q3 TEN 4th & 10 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 97%
(7:23) 6-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
-
Q3 NO 4th & 9 at the 39Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 33% p(FG) 54%
(1:56) 39-C.Smyth 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
-
Q4 TEN 4th & 12 at the 40Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 51%
(12:55) 6-J.Slye 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
-
Q4 TEN 4th & 6 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(8:57) 3-J.Hekker punts 61 yards to NO 3, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-D.Pettis to NO 20 for 17 yards (31-K.Mullings). ** Injury Update: TEN-12-M.Kinsey has returned to the game.
-
Q4 TEN 4th & 17 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(5:03) 3-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to NO 31, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-D.Pettis pushed ob at NO 36 for 5 yards (52-J.Williams).
-
Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 37 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 60%
(2:09) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at NO 38 for -1 yards (94-C.Jordan).
-
Q4 NO 4th & 13 at the 65 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(1:47) 32-K.Kroeger punts 41 yards to TEN 24, Center-49-Z.Wood. 17-C.Dike to TEN 31 for 7 yards (27-I.Yiadom).
-
Q4 TEN 4th & 11 at the 57 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 30%
(:26) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 5-E.Ayomanor to NO 43 for 14 yards (4-K.McKinstry).
-
Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 75Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EPp(convert) 72%
(9:11) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to NYG 21, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 80-G.Olszewski ran ob at NYG 27 for 6 yards (44-T.Eichenberg; 59-J.Rhattigan).
-
Q1 NYG 4th & 5 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(7:58) 12-J.Gillan punts 44 yards to LV 24, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 81-A.Bachman to LV 24 for no gain (33-D.Flannigan-Fowles).
-
Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 51Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 35%
(5:21) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to NYG 45 for 6 yards (91-D.Alexander; 8-J.Holland).
-
Q2 LV 4th & 8 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 89%
(9:46) 8-D.Carlson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
-
Q2 LV 4th & 14 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(3:31) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to NYG 15, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.
-
Q2 NYG 4th & 14 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%
(:02) 30-B.Sauls 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.
-
Q3 NYG 4th & 5 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%
(7:21) 30-B.Sauls 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.
-
Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 62%
(4:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 87-M.Mayer to NYG 21 for 19 yards (24-D.Belton). NYG-51-A.Carter was injured during the play.
-
Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 13Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 96%
(2:28) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 10-D.Thornton to NYG 6 for 7 yards (22-A.Phillips; 33-D.Flannigan-Fowles).
-
Q3 LV 4th & 4 at the 4Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%
(:36) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 17-T.Lockett for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 2 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%
(3:45) 6-J.Dart scrambles left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q4 LV 4th & 16 at the 47 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EPp(convert) 25% p(FG) 44%
(1:48) (Shotgun) 15-K.Pickett pass short right to 4-S.Jackson to NYG 36 for 11 yards (33-D.Flannigan-Fowles).
-
Q1 PHI 4th & 2 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EPp(convert) 63%
(13:58) 10-B.Mann punts 54 yards to BUF 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by PHI-7-K.Ringo.
-
Q1 BUF 4th & 17 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(8:46) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to PHI 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.
-
Q1 PHI 4th & 4 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(6:05) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to BUF 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.
-
Q2 BUF 4th & 8 at the 44Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 47%
(11:07) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 36 yards to PHI 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-B.Covey. PENALTY on BUF-28-S.Franklin, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 8.
-
Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 81%
(5:07) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.
-
Q2 BUF 4th & 12 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(3:00) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to PHI 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 18-B.Covey to PHI 29 for 8 yards (41-R.Gilliam).
-
Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 97%
(:11) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.
-
Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EPp(convert) 73%
(13:32) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to PHI 22, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.
-
Q3 PHI 4th & 12 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(11:10) 10-B.Mann punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.
-
Q3 BUF 4th & 15 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 27%
(6:36) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 36 yards to PHI 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.
-
Q3 PHI 4th & 10 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(6:14) 10-B.Mann punts 62 yards to BUF 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-K.Shakir ran ob at BUF 32 for 10 yards (21-S.Brown; 28-W.Shipley).
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Q3 BUF 4th & 3 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 99%
(2:25) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right tackle to PHI 1 for 2 yards (53-Z.Baun).
-
Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 97Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(:13) 10-B.Mann punts 50 yards to BUF 47, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-K.Shakir ran ob at PHI 41 for 12 yards (28-W.Shipley).
-
Q4 PHI 4th & 6 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(11:14) 10-B.Mann punts 58 yards to BUF 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-K.Shakir ran ob at BUF 46 for 28 yards (47-C.Hughlett).
-
Q4 PHI 4th & 12 at the 72 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(3:29) 10-B.Mann punts 55 yards to BUF 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.
-
Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 71 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 36%
(1:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-T.Shavers to BUF 33 for 4 yards. Lateral to 26-Ty.Johnson pushed ob at PHI 46 for 21 yards (39-M.Epps).
-
Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 1 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%
(:08) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q1 CLE 4th & 7 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 72%
(10:52) 25-A.Szmyt 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
-
Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EPp(convert) 61%
(8:40) 3-C.Waitman punts 52 yards to CLE 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.
-
Q2 PIT 4th & 13 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 85%
(14:58) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
-
Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 33Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 70%
(10:18) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass incomplete short left to 87-S.Cannella.
-
Q2 PIT 4th & 6 at the 47Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 32%
(8:38) 3-C.Waitman punts 31 yards to CLE 16, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-40-J.Peppers.
-
Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 22Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 89%
(2:50) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 13-S.Miller.
-
Q2 CLE 4th & 2 at the 70Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EPp(convert) 58%
(2:00) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to PIT 13, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 13-S.Miller pushed ob at PIT 22 for 9 yards (31-D.McMillon).
-
Q2 PIT 4th & 4 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 89%
(:03) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
-
Q3 PIT 4th & 6 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(12:02) 3-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to CLE 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.
-
Q3 CLE 4th & 13 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(6:08) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to PIT 22, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
-
Q4 PIT 4th & 19 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 62%
(12:59) 9-C.Boswell 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
-
Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 46Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 35%
(9:51) 3-C.Waitman punts 34 yards to CLE 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.
-
Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(7:15) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 64 yards to PIT 18, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 13-S.Miller ran ob at PIT 43 for 25 yards (86-B.Whiteheart).
-
Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 20%
(5:01) 3-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.
-
Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 81 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EPp(convert) 70%
(2:24) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 61 yards to PIT 20, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 13-S.Miller.
-
Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 80 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.37 EPp(convert) 36%
(2:02) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 13-S.Miller (93-S.Harris).
-
Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 15 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 95%
(1:44) 25-A.Szmyt 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
-
Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 7 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EPp(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%
(:21) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling (21-D.Ward).
-
Q1 CAR 4th & 9 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 28%
(13:16) 6-S.Martin punts 35 yards to SEA 18, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
-
Q1 SEA 4th & 14 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(10:48) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to CAR 20, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 15-Ji.Horn.
-
Q1 CAR 4th & 5 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(8:40) 6-S.Martin punts 58 yards to SEA 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 30 for 13 yards (57-B.Martin-Scott; 48-T.Incoom). CAR-33-R.Rochell was injured during the play.
-
Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 30Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 81%
(3:28) 5-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
-
Q1 CAR 4th & 9 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(2:00) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to SEA 16, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
-
Q2 SEA 4th & 7 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(13:30) 4-M.Dickson punts 35 yards to CAR 23, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.
-
Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 48Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 40%
(9:59) Direct snap to 84-M.Evans. 84-M.Evans up the middle to SEA 47 for 1 yard (0-D.Lawrence; 99-L.Williams).
-
Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 41Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 58%
(7:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 4-T.McMillan (21-D.Witherspoon). Penalty on CAR-17-X.Legette, Offensive Offside, declined.
-
Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 17Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.51 EPp(convert) 64% p(FG) 94%
(3:50) 10-R.Fitzgerald 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
-
Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 39Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72% p(FG) 63%
(:26) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold up the middle to CAR 39 for no gain (94-A.Robinson; 56-C.Rozeboom). (Virtual measurement).
-
Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 60Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69%
(4:13) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles left end ran ob at CAR 48 for 8 yards (3-N.Emmanwori).
-
Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%
(5:36) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 17 at the 80 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.29 EPp(convert) 27%
(3:47) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 25 for 5 yards (20-J.Love).
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Q1 MIA 4th & 16 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(13:09) 16-J.Bailey punts 54 yards to TB 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-K.Johnson pushed ob at TB 32 for 15 yards (16-J.Bailey).
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Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 44Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 49%
(10:22) 44-S.Tucker up the middle to MIA 42 for 2 yards (9-I.Melifonwu).
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Q2 TB 4th & 6 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(14:06) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIA 13, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 11 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%
(8:23) 47-R.Patterson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
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Q2 TB 4th & 6 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 67%
(:27) 4-C.McLaughlin 55 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-Z.Biggers), Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q3 TB 4th & 3 at the 58Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EPp(convert) 54%
(13:34) 9-R.Dixon punts 27 yards to MIA 31, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-82-D.Culp.
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Q3 TB 4th & 15 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 95%
(3:53) 4-C.McLaughlin 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q4 MIA 4th & 3 at the 13Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EPp(convert) 49% p(FG) 96%
(14:19) 47-R.Patterson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
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Q4 TB 4th & 7 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(12:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to MIA 4, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-32-J.Hayes.
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Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 73Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EPp(convert) 74%
(8:45) 16-J.Bailey punts 51 yards to TB 22, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.
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Q4 MIA 4th & 11 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(5:28) 16-J.Bailey punts 43 yards to TB 32, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
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Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 49 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 37%
(4:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 14-C.Godwin pushed ob at MIA 38 for 11 yards (40-W.Gay).
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Q4 MIA 4th & 4 at the 39 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.95 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 62%
(2:00) 16-J.Bailey punts 30 yards to TB 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-21-A.Davis. ** Injury Update: MIA-3-K.Britt has returned to the game.