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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 11

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(1:04) 23-K.Williams up the middle to ATL 13 for -2 yards (92-K.Kareem).

The Three Options

GO +3.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.20 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model