Win Probability
Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- LA offense: +0.221 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- QB edge to LA: Kirk Cousins (ATL) -0.065 vs Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.286 EPA/dropback
- ATL defense: +0.047 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- ATL offense: +0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
- LA on 3 more days rest than ATL
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 17
LA
ATL
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 06:16 TD ATL (6:16) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 7-B.Robinson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [0-B.Young]. LA 0 – ATL 6
- Q2 08:42 TD ATL (8:42) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 15-K.Mumpfield INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates at LA 34. 3-J.Bates for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – ATL 13
- Q2 01:41 TD ATL (1:41) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right tackle for 93 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – ATL 20
- Q3 11:12 FG LA (11:12) 92-H.Mevis 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 3 – ATL 21
- Q3 07:51 FG ATL (7:51) 45-Z.Gonzalez 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. LA 3 – ATL 24
- Q3 05:06 TD LA (5:06) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 18-T.Ferguson for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – ATL 24
- Q3 00:43 TD LA (:43) 45-Z.Gonzalez 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (8-J.Verse), Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion, RECOVERED by LA-8-J.Verse at LA 24. 8-J.Verse for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 16 – ATL 24
- Q4 02:52 TD LA (2:52) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 23 – ATL 24
- Q4 00:25 FG ATL (:25) 45-Z.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. LA 24 – ATL 27
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 ATL 4th & 7 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(13:35) 13-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to LA 11, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-X.Smith to LA 42 for 31 yards (36-R.Harrison). PENALTY on LA-25-R.McCreary, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at LA 11.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 85Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.74 EPp(convert) 78%
(11:53) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to ATL 35, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 11Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 97%
(1:04) 23-K.Williams up the middle to ATL 13 for -2 yards (92-K.Kareem).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 ATL 4th & 9 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 32%
(10:01) 13-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to LA 12, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LA 4th & 11 at the 41Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 60%
(4:22) 42-E.Evans punts 40 yards to ATL 1, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-88-J.Whittington.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 96Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(2:00) 13-B.Pinion punts 61 yards to LA 35, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-X.Smith to LA 47 for 12 yards (28-M.Ford).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LA 4th & 6 at the 51Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 35%
(13:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 19-X.Smith pushed ob at ATL 15 for 36 yards (3-J.Bates; 24-A.Terrell).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LA 4th & 12 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%
(11:12) 92-H.Mevis 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 ATL 4th & 10 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 69%
(7:51) 45-Z.Gonzalez 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 ATL 4th & 4 at the 19Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 93%
(:43) 45-Z.Gonzalez 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (8-J.Verse), Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion, RECOVERED by LA-8-J.Verse at LA 24. 8-J.Verse for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 49%
(13:49) 13-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to LA 9, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-X.Smith to LA 20 for 11 yards (85-T.Quitoriano).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 27Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 86%
(9:13) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 18-T.Ferguson INTERCEPTED by 31-X.Watts at ATL 25. 31-X.Watts ran ob at LA 43 for 32 yards (9-M.Stafford). PENALTY on ATL, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at LA 43.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 49Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.63 EPp(convert) 70% p(FG) 39%
(7:34) 13-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to LA 11, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 ATL 4th & 8 at the 33 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 77%
(:25) 45-Z.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 65 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.64 EPp(convert) 40%
(:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 12-P.Nacua (24-A.Terrell).
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