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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 27

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(9:13) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 18-T.Ferguson INTERCEPTED by 31-X.Watts at ATL 25. 31-X.Watts ran ob at LA 43 for 32 yards (9-M.Stafford). PENALTY on ATL, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at LA 43.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.26 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 37, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model