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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 49

Atlanta Falcons 24 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(7:34) 13-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to LA 11, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.50 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.63 EP