Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 70

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 13-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to LA 11, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-X.Smith to LA 42 for 31 yards (36-R.Harrison). PENALTY on LA-25-R.McCreary, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at LA 11.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.53 EP
58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 70, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model