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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 17

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(11:12) 92-H.Mevis 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.67 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model