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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 37

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(7:51) 45-Z.Gonzalez 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.35 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 37, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model