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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 41

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(4:22) 42-E.Evans punts 40 yards to ATL 1, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-88-J.Whittington.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.75 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 41, worth -1.91 EP
KICK -0.15 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP