Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 96

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Los Angeles Rams 0

(2:00) 13-B.Pinion punts 61 yards to LA 35, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-X.Smith to LA 47 for 12 yards (28-M.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -3.00 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.42 EP
55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 96, worth -5.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model