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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 8 at the 34
Dallas Cowboys 24 – Washington Commanders 17
What Actually Happened
(4:47) 17-B.Aubrey 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
The Three Options
GO
+0.60 EP
Model's Pick
-
38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.30 EP
- 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.71 EP
KICK
+0.39 EP
What Happened
- 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
- 29% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT
-0.21 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
