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DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Brian Schottenheimer
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
Thursday 2025-12-25 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread -8.5 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

DAL
56.8%
WAS
43.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS defense: +0.238 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • DAL defense: +0.208 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • WAS offense: -0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • QB edge to WAS: Josh Johnson (WAS) +0.204 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.208 EPA/dropback (WAS starting Josh Johnson in place of Marcus Mariota)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 27
–
WAS 23
Projected margin: DAL by 4 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

DAL

Payton Turner DE Out Ribs
Josh Butler CB Out Knee
DeMarvion Overshown LB Out Concussion
Tyler Guyton T Out Ankle
Phil Mafah RB Out Shoulder
Quinnen Williams DT Questionable Neck
Caelen Carson CB Questionable Hamstring
Ryan Flournoy WR Questionable Knee
Tyler Booker G Questionable Ankle

WAS

Nick Bellore LB Out Concussion
Marcus Mariota QB Out Hand
Laremy Tunsil T Out Oblique
Daron Payne DT Out Back
Jayden Daniels QB Out Elbow
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 30
–
WAS 23

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:47 TD DAL (9:47) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – WAS 0
  • Q1 04:47 FG WAS (4:47) 16-J.Moody 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. DAL 7 – WAS 3
  • Q2 12:12 TD DAL (12:12) 33-J.Williams left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 13 – WAS 3
  • Q2 07:11 TD DAL (7:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 9-K.Turpin for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on WAS-4-F.Luvu, Defensive Offside, declined. DAL 20 – WAS 3
  • Q2 04:39 TD WAS (4:39) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 21 – WAS 9
  • Q2 00:22 FG DAL (:22) 17-B.Aubrey 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 24 – WAS 10
  • Q3 09:44 TD WAS (9:44) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 24 – WAS 16
  • Q3 04:47 FG DAL (4:47) 17-B.Aubrey 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 27 – WAS 17
  • Q3 00:19 FG WAS (:19) 16-J.Moody 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. DAL 27 – WAS 20
  • Q4 04:02 FG DAL (4:02) 17-B.Aubrey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 30 – WAS 20
  • Q4 02:14 FG WAS (2:14) 16-J.Moody 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. DAL 30 – WAS 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (13:08) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams right guard to DAL 48 for 4 yards (99-J.Kinlaw).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (4:47) 16-J.Moody 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74% p(FG) 31%

    (1:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 3-G.Pickens to WAS 31 for 19 yards (6-N.Igbinoghene).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 2 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 89%

    (14:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 1-J.Tolbert to WAS 19 for 4 yards (0-M.Sainristil).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 97%

    (12:49) 33-J.Williams up the middle to WAS 9 for 1 yard (6-N.Igbinoghene).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 7 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 49%

    (9:20) 10-T.Way punts 40 yards to DAL 3, impetus ends at DAL 1, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-35-P.Butler.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 7 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 89%

    (:22) 17-B.Aubrey 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 8 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:55) 10-T.Way punts 53 yards to DAL 7, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 18 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:53) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to WAS 38, Center-44-T.Sieg. 88-R.Cracraft to WAS 40 for 2 yards (29-C.Goodwin). PENALTY on WAS-18-T.Owens, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 38.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 8 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 71%

    (4:47) 17-B.Aubrey 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (:19) 16-J.Moody 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 7 at the 40
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 57%

    (13:36) 17-B.Aubrey 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 31%

    (11:38) 10-T.Way punts 35 yards to DAL 15, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64%

    (6:31) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 1-J.Tolbert pushed ob at WAS 48 for 7 yards (0-M.Sainristil).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 33 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 74%

    (4:02) 17-B.Aubrey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 34 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.36 EP
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 71%

    (:10) 4-D.Prescott up the middle to WAS 31 for 3 yards (96-J.Holmes; 54-B.Wagner).