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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 4 at the 33
Dallas Cowboys 27 – Washington Commanders 20
What Actually Happened
(4:02) 17-B.Aubrey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
The Three Options
GO
+1.25 EP
Model's Pick
-
50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.66 EP
- 50% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.16 EP
KICK
+0.99 EP
What Happened
- 74% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
- 26% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 43, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT
-0.47 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
