4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 50

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(1:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 3-G.Pickens to WAS 31 for 19 yards (6-N.Igbinoghene).

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 50, worth -3.00 EP
KICK -1.68 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model