Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 50

Washington Commanders 20 – Dallas Cowboys 27

(11:38) 10-T.Way punts 35 yards to DAL 15, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.04 EP
62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 50, worth -2.36 EP

KICK -1.02 EP

31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
69% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model