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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 11

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(4:47) 16-J.Moody 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.91 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model