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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 5

Washington Commanders 17 – Dallas Cowboys 27

What Actually Happened

(:19) 16-J.Moody 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 5, worth +0.38 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP