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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 60

Washington Commanders 10 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 10-T.Way punts 53 yards to DAL 7, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.90 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 60, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 19, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model