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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 7 at the 23
Dallas Cowboys 21 – Washington Commanders 10
What Actually Happened
(:22) 17-B.Aubrey 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
The Three Options
GO
+1.25 EP
-
39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +3.56 EP
- 61% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.24 EP
KICK
+2.08 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
- 11% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 33, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT
-0.08 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
