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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 43

Washington Commanders 3 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 10-T.Way punts 40 yards to DAL 3, impetus ends at DAL 1, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-35-P.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.70 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 43, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP