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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 66

Green Bay Packers 7 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(11:25) (Shotgun) 70-D.Kinnard reported in as eligible. 8-J.Jacobs right guard to GB 34 for no gain (0-R.Smith; 95-T.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 66, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 24, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model