Win Probability
Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- GB offense: +0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- BAL defense: -0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- QB edge to BAL: Malik Willis (GB) -0.129 vs Tyler Huntley (BAL) -0.061 EPA/dropback (GB starting Malik Willis in place of Jordan Love; BAL starting Tyler Huntley in place of Lamar Jackson)
New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →
Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 17
GB
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:03 TD BAL (7:03) 22-D.Henry right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – GB 0
- Q1 05:51 TD GB (5:51) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 7 – GB 6
- Q2 13:15 TD BAL (13:15) 22-D.Henry left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB-97-J.Riley was injured during the play. BAL 13 – GB 7
- Q2 07:13 FG BAL (7:13) 33-T.Loop 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 17 – GB 7
- Q2 03:39 FG BAL (3:39) 33-T.Loop 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 20 – GB 7
- Q2 01:30 TD GB (1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Willis right end for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 20 – GB 13
- Q2 00:14 TD BAL (:14) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 26 – GB 14
- Q3 09:13 FG GB (9:13) 17-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. BAL 27 – GB 17
- Q3 02:08 TD GB (2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Willis scrambles right end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 27 – GB 23
- Q4 10:14 TD BAL (10:14) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-K.Enagbare]. BAL 33 – GB 24
- Q4 02:02 TD BAL (2:02) 22-D.Henry left end for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 40 – GB 24
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 66Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73%
(11:25) (Shotgun) 70-D.Kinnard reported in as eligible. 8-J.Jacobs right guard to GB 34 for no gain (0-R.Smith; 95-T.Robinson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 4Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%
(7:13) 33-T.Loop 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 BAL 4th & 9 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%
(3:39) 33-T.Loop 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 GB 4th & 6 at the 6Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%
(9:13) 17-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 BAL 4th & 11 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(5:08) 11-J.Stout punts 42 yards to GB 14, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 87-R.Doubs.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 GB 4th & 8 at the 50 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.31 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 28%
(:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-C.Tune pass incomplete short left to 0-M.Golden.
See the full breakdown →
