Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 56

Baltimore Ravens 27 – Green Bay Packers 17

(5:08) 11-J.Stout punts 42 yards to GB 14, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 87-R.Doubs.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.89 EP
67% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model