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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 14 at the 14

New York Giants 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(:02) 30-B.Sauls 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.88 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 14, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24, worth -0.03 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model