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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2025-12-28 · 16:05 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

NYG
54.3%
LV
45.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.183 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to NYG: Geno Smith (LV) -0.154 vs Jaxson Dart (NYG) -0.042 EPA/dropback
  • NYG defense: +0.146 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NYG offense: +0.016 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.025 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 25
–
LV 23
Projected margin: NYG by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

NYG

Andrew Thomas T Out Hamstring
DJ Davidson DT Out Neck
Evan Neal G Out Neck
Theo Johnson TE Out Illness
Tyler Nubin S Out Neck
Beaux Collins WR Out Neck
John Michael Schmitz C Doubtful Finger
Rakeem Nunez-Roches DT Questionable Ankle
Cordale Flott CB Questionable Knee
Joshua Ezeudu G Questionable Calf

LV

Kolton Miller T Out Ankle
Maxx Crosby DE Out Knee
Raheem Mostert RB Questionable Ankle
Jack Bech WR Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 34
–
LV 10

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:01 TD NYG (:01) 94-E.Chatman and 64-A.Stinnie reported in as eligible. 26-D.Singletary left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – LV 0
  • Q2 09:46 FG LV (9:46) 8-D.Carlson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. NYG 7 – LV 3
  • Q2 06:01 TD NYG (6:01) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart up the middle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – LV 3
  • Q2 00:02 FG NYG (:02) 30-B.Sauls 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. NYG 17 – LV 3
  • Q3 07:21 FG NYG (7:21) 30-B.Sauls 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. NYG 20 – LV 3
  • Q3 00:36 TD LV (:36) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 17-T.Lockett for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 20 – LV 9
  • Q3 00:31 TD NYG 8-D.Carlson kicks 60 yards from LV 35 to NYG 5. 2-D.Banks for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NYG, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. NYG 26 – LV 10
  • Q4 03:45 TD NYG (3:45) 6-J.Dart scrambles left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 33 – LV 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:11) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to NYG 21, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 80-G.Olszewski ran ob at NYG 27 for 6 yards (44-T.Eichenberg; 59-J.Rhattigan).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 5 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (7:58) 12-J.Gillan punts 44 yards to LV 24, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 81-A.Bachman to LV 24 for no gain (33-D.Flannigan-Fowles).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 35%

    (5:21) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to NYG 45 for 6 yards (91-D.Alexander; 8-J.Holland).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 8 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 89%

    (9:46) 8-D.Carlson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 14 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:31) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to NYG 15, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 14 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (:02) 30-B.Sauls 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (7:21) 30-B.Sauls 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 62%

    (4:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 87-M.Mayer to NYG 21 for 19 yards (24-D.Belton). NYG-51-A.Carter was injured during the play.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 96%

    (2:28) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 10-D.Thornton to NYG 6 for 7 yards (22-A.Phillips; 33-D.Flannigan-Fowles).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (:36) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 17-T.Lockett for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 2 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (3:45) 6-J.Dart scrambles left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 16 at the 47 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 44%

    (1:48) (Shotgun) 15-K.Pickett pass short right to 4-S.Jackson to NYG 36 for 11 yards (33-D.Flannigan-Fowles).