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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New York Giants
4th & 1 at the 2
New York Giants 27 – Las Vegas Raiders 10
What Actually Happened
(3:45) 6-J.Dart scrambles left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+4.23 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 2, worth +0.19 EP
KICK
+1.86 EP
- 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT
-0.37 EP
- Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
