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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 75

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(9:11) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to NYG 21, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 80-G.Olszewski ran ob at NYG 27 for 6 yards (44-T.Eichenberg; 59-J.Rhattigan).

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.13 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 75, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 32, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP