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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 5

New York Giants 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(7:21) 30-B.Sauls 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.47 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 5, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP