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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 51

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle to NYG 45 for 6 yards (91-D.Alexander; 8-J.Holland).

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.83 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 51, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model