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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 24

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(9:46) 8-D.Carlson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.92 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 24, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 34, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model