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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 16 at the 47

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – New York Giants 34

What Actually Happened

(1:48) (Shotgun) 15-K.Pickett pass short right to 4-S.Jackson to NYG 36 for 11 yards (33-D.Flannigan-Fowles).

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.66 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 47, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 13, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP