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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 14 at the 69

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(3:31) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to NYG 15, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.18 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 69, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 27, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model