Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 68

New York Giants 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

(7:58) 12-J.Gillan punts 44 yards to LV 24, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 81-A.Bachman to LV 24 for no gain (33-D.Flannigan-Fowles).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.58 EP
52% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 68, worth -4.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model