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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 20

New York Jets 10 – New England Patriots 42

What Actually Happened

(:58) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass short right to 16-T.Johnson to NE 17 for 3 yards (41-B.Schooler; 48-J.Tavai).

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.27 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 20, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.06 EP