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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 9

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 11-C.Dicker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.82 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 9, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP