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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 11

Denver Broncos 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(:22) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.41 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -0.36 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model