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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Thursday 2025-12-25 · 20:15 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread -13.5 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

DEN
60.5%
KC
39.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to DEN: Chris Oladokun (KC) -0.290 vs Bo Nix (DEN) +0.140 EPA/dropback (KC starting Chris Oladokun in place of Gardner Minshew)
  • DEN offense: +0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • Chris Oladokun (KC) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

DEN 24
–
KC 20
Projected margin: DEN by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

DEN

Dre Greenlaw LB Out Hamstring
Luke Wattenberg C Out Shoulder
Nate Adkins TE Out Knee
Pat Bryant WR Out Concussion
Karene Reid LB Out Hamstring

KC

Jake Briningstool TE Out Hamstring
Derrick Nnadi DT Questionable Illness
Jaylon Moore T Questionable Knee
Nick Bolton LB Questionable Illness
George Karlaftis DE Questionable Illness
Nikko Remigio WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 20
–
KC 13

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:02 FG DEN (7:02) 3-W.Lutz 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. DEN 3 – KC 0
  • Q2 12:56 TD KC (12:56) (Shotgun) 19-C.Oladokun pass short right to 24-B.Smith for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 3 – KC 6
  • Q2 00:22 FG DEN (:22) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. DEN 6 – KC 7
  • Q3 11:47 FG KC (11:47) 7-H.Butker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. DEN 6 – KC 10
  • Q3 02:02 TD DEN (2:02) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles left tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 12 – KC 10
  • Q4 08:08 FG KC (8:08) 7-H.Butker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. DEN 13 – KC 13
  • Q4 01:50 TD DEN (1:50) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [27-C.Conner]. DEN 19 – KC 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 97%

    (7:02) 3-W.Lutz 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:00) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to DEN 11, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Mims to DEN 19 for 8 yards (48-C.Christiansen; 34-M.Edwards).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 11
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 97%

    (14:19) (Shotgun) 60-H.Nourzad reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt left guard to DEN 6 for 5 yards (9-T.Hufanga).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 28%

    (10:41) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 45 yards to KC 7, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 24-B.Smith to KC 18 for 11 yards (35-R.Taylor).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (8:33) 14-M.Araiza punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback. PENALTY on DEN-31-K.Abrams-Draine, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 20.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (:22) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 97%

    (2:53) 73-F.Crum reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix left guard to KC 9 for 1 yard (23-D.Tranquill).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (15:00) 14-M.Araiza punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 11 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:14) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 58 yards to KC 11, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 24-B.Smith to DEN 45 for 44 yards (92-D.Tillman).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 82%

    (8:08) 7-H.Butker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 26 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.83 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 86%

    (:20) (Shotgun) 19-C.Oladokun pass incomplete deep middle to 5-M.Brown.