Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 61

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Denver Broncos 13

(15:00) 14-M.Araiza punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.40 EP
58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 61, worth -3.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model