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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 10

Denver Broncos 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 73-F.Crum reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix left guard to KC 9 for 1 yard (23-D.Tranquill).

The Three Options

GO +3.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.30 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 10, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model