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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 11

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(14:19) (Shotgun) 60-H.Nourzad reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt left guard to DEN 6 for 5 yards (9-T.Hufanga).

The Three Options

GO +3.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.42 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model