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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 26

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(:20) (Shotgun) 19-C.Oladokun pass incomplete deep middle to 5-M.Brown.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +1.80 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 36, worth -0.29 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.81 EP