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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 9

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(7:02) 3-W.Lutz 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +2.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.12 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 9, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP