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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 52

Denver Broncos 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 45 yards to KC 7, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 24-B.Smith to KC 18 for 11 yards (35-R.Taylor).

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.91 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 52, worth -3.06 EP
KICK -1.88 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model