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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 58

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 4-M.Dickson punts 35 yards to CAR 23, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.57 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model