Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 17 at the 72

Tennessee Titans 26 – New Orleans Saints 27

(5:03) 3-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to NO 31, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-D.Pettis pushed ob at NO 36 for 5 yards (52-J.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.95 EP
74% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 72, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model