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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 73

Miami Dolphins 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(8:45) 16-J.Bailey punts 51 yards to TB 22, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.29 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP