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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 58

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 9-R.Dixon punts 27 yards to MIA 31, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-82-D.Culp.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.35 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 58, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 18, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP