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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 65

New Orleans Saints 34 – Tennessee Titans 26

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 32-K.Kroeger punts 41 yards to TEN 24, Center-49-Z.Wood. 17-C.Dike to TEN 31 for 7 yards (27-I.Yiadom).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.65 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 65, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 23, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model