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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 70

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(10:24) 8-R.Rehkow punts 42 yards to ARI 28, Center-46-W.Wagner. 80-S.Sims to ARI 33 for 5 yards (43-J.Giles-Harris; 42-O.Burks).

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.58 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 28, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model